https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid
Today’s Lesson: Data, Statistics, Behavior and Emotion Regarding COVID-19
I’m a bit of a research nerd. There is a back story behind numbers and data can be skewed in many ways. This is one of the most informative articles that I’ve found. Here’s the important part in a nutshell- I’ve extracted it for you. Now before you get all angry if get something wrong, give grace as I am a first grade teacher and do this data thing as a hobby. I just thought it was interesting and that I would save you some time and reading. You’re welcome.
When discussing COVID-19 and the risks there is important data to consider:
Here are some relevant acronyms and definitions that I have extracted.
CFR Case Fatality Rate – The risk of dying if infected with COVID-19
The number who have died divided by the number infected (tested and confirmed).
CMR Crude Mortality Rate – The likelihood that any individual will die in an entire population.
Number of deaths divided by the total population.
IFR Infection Mortality Rate – The total number of deaths if everyone in the population were tested.
Total number of cases divided by total number of deaths given the entire population is tested.
*This is basically irrelevant because not everyone will be tested.
So now with these definitions we can run numbers. Let’s use relatively recent Washington County, MD data where I live, and NYC data. For those in other counties you can do the same if you have your stats.
Washington County, MD
Population: 151,049
Confirmed Cases: 743
Deaths: 29
CFR – 29/743 = .039
CMR – 29/151,049 = .00019
New York City, NY
Population: 8,399,000
Confirmed Cases: 217,230
Deaths: 23,371
CFR – 217,230 / 23,371 = .1
CMR – 23,371/8,399,000 = .002
*IFR Irrelevant/impossible to calculate given that not everyone will be tested.
As you can see the numbers are very different, however what I find the most relevant for my decisions and fear is the CMR (Crude Mortality Rate – the likelihood of death in a particular population). According to current statistics, I figure I have an approximately .00019 chance of dying from COVID-19 in Washington County, MD (approximately 1 in 5,000). Would my likelihood increase if I lived in NYC where the total population is higher and much more dense? According to statistics, yes but I could also be older, I could suffer from other health illnesses which could make me more likely to die which also by the way statistics. Your particular situation is unique and remember, stats are just averages.
CFR needs a context…a location, a population. New York’s numbers were alarming; the number of cases and deaths were skyrocketing in the beginning. Well of course – the population of NYC alone is 8.4 million and it is a densely populated city. People are crammed in a small space and social distancing is a huge challenge. Clearly the CFR can vary among locations or sound alarming given a particular population.
Our behavior/decisions regarding COVID-19 is affected by data and statistics can change dramatically with the number of newly tested individuals, newly confirmed cases and newly reported deaths. For example, if in one week 10 people were diagnosed and 1 died the CFR would be 1/10 = .1. In 3 weeks if 50 people were diagnosed and 2 died the CFR would be 2/50 – .04 big difference, right? Again, data can be skewed and interpreted given many factors.
So using relatively current data… if infected with COVID-19 you have a .039 (lets’s say .4) chance of dying. That means given 100 people confirmed, 4 may die. Of 25 people 1 may die – IF INFECTED. In Washington County approximately 1 of every 5,000 people may die just doing what they do.
The bottom line is given appropriate mask wearing precautions, and being in overall good health there is a low risk of death. There… I said it. HOWEVER, if it were your child, that ONE would be the reason. Is your child immunocompromised? Does your friend have asthma? Does your father have COPD?
We were asked to quarantine to flatten the curve and avoid overwhelming the health care system NOT to eradicate the virus. The virus is still around and we should still be socially responsible to wear masks and prevent the spread to vulnerable populations. Part of me says the risk is low, let’s just get back to normal. Go to school, play sports, live normally but cautiously. The other part says, if I can do my part by embracing the decisions made my our Governor, Board of Education, and other decision makers I will.
If that ONE were yours would you be happy? Do your part. Be socially responsible and show your care for others.
Thanks for reading. Stay informed!
Much Love… D